A Probabilistic Collocation Method-based Approach for Optimal Strategic Air Traffic Flow Management under Weather Uncertainties

This paper suggests an effective approach to design optimal strategic air traffic management strategies under weather uncertainty. The approach is based on the multivariate probabilistic collocation method, which constructs a good low-order polynomial approximation of the original system mapping over likely parameter values, from which optimal management strategies can be derived. We illustrate the optimal management design procedure through an example of designing Minutesin-trail (MINIT) and routing strategies for two correlated weather zones. The performance analysis shows this approach is promising for the real-time design of strategic air traffic management strategies due to its correctness and efficiency.